Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 because he was both lucky and somewhat politically savvy. Eight years later, he is once again making some smart moves and benefiting from good fortune. As someone who believes that Trump was one of the most radical, antidemocratic presidents in American history and would be even worse in a second term, I am very alarmed.

Trump is well-positioned to win in November (he is probably the favorite right now). But that’s not because America is in love with the former president, his policies or the idea of having a strongman dominating the country. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. A clear majority of voters disapproved of his leadership throughout his presidency. Most Americans still view him unfavorably. It’s possible that Trump could finish ahead of President Biden in the popular vote this November, but he is very unlikely to clear 50 percent, as millions of Americans are likely to choose a third-party candidate.

But though Trump hasn’t successfully courted the broader American electorate, he has mastered Republican Party politics. Back in 2015, Trump realized that many Republican voters were deeply dissatisfied with both the economy and cultural changes occurring in the country and therefore weren’t looking for a candidate in the mold of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush.

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Eight years later, even as many pundits, donors, elected officials and other Republican elites were trying to sideline Trump and make Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida the party’s new standard-bearer, the former president correctly assumed that many Republican voters still really liked him. So he started another presidential campaign, skipping debates and other forums that would have put DeSantis and his other opponents on an equal footing with him and promising an even more conservative and extreme presidency if elected again. Even Republican officials who had publicly expressed reservations about another Trump term started endorsing him, seeing his strong support among the party’s voters.

By the time voting started earlier this year, the primary was effectively over. Now, even very Trump-skeptical figures such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have embraced the former president. He has largely eradicated the “Never Trump” faction in the party that was strong in 2016 and tried to reemerge after his 2020 loss.

Since securing the Republican nomination, Trump has taken steps to appeal to the broader electorate. A ruling by the Republican-dominated Alabama Supreme Court in February that undermined the legality of in vitro fertilization and one in April by Arizona’s conservative high court to enact a near-total ban on abortion were huge potential political problems for Trump. So he acted. He criticized both decisions and urged Republican lawmakers in both states to back legislation that would effectively reverse them. (And they did.)

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In another sign that he is trying to appeal to more moderate voters, Trump is reportedly considering for his running mate the boring and normal governor of one of the Dakotas (Doug Burgum of North Dakota), but not the more controversial one with whom he was once allied politically (Kristi L. Noem of South Dakota).

But though Trump is making some wise political decisions, what’s really driving his success are factors outside his control. Eight years ago, Democrats pushed forwarded a candidate beloved by party insiders, even though poll after poll showed that many voters, including some liberals, didn’t like former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. Prominent news organizations assumed that Trump could not win, leading to overly negative coverage of Clinton. Leftist voters also anticipated a Clinton victory and backed third-party candidates.

This year, Democratic Party insiders have again coalesced around someone they like (Biden) and insisted that person is electorally strong, despite considerable evidence to the contrary. Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the resulting Israeli offensive in Gaza has created an ideal political situation for Trump: a high-profile issue on which Republicans are united and Democrats deeply divided.

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And where Trump might have benefited from being considered a long shot in 2016, his status as the general election favorite is what’s helping him now. News organizations seem reluctant to be out of step with the country and overly critical of a man who might be the next president, even if he might undermine core democratic norms if elected. Left-leaning judges seem wary of aggressive moves against a man whom at least 41 percent of American voters want to be their leader. None of the liberals on the U.S. Supreme Court voted to disqualify Trump based on the Fourteenth Amendment’s ban on officials who have supported an insurrection holding office again. The judge in Trump’s New York hush money trial, Juan Merchan, won’t send the former president to jail, even as Trump repeatedly violates Merchan’s rules for the trial.

The constant delays in the federal cases against Trump (one surrounding his conduct around Jan. 6, 2021; the other for allegedly mishandling classified documents) are a combination of luck and smarts, in my view. Trump appointed some of the judges taking his side. But even he might be surprised at how willing these judges have been to make decisions that will probably delay his being tried before the election.

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So can Trump be stopped? Yes. His luck could run out. Maybe he is found guilty in the hush money trial and his poll numbers decline. Or there is a cease-fire in Gaza and some good economic news and Biden becomes more popular. (I wouldn’t count on this. Strong job growth and reduced inflation over the past two years haven’t lifted Biden’s approval ratings.)

Alternatively, Trump could make a huge political blunder that diminishes his support. Of course, he has already survived two impeachments, four indictments, highly unpopular policies and an endless number of controversial comments.

But Trump’s biggest weakness is that his extraordinary luck and his mastery of Republican politics don’t make up for his unpopularity with the rest of the electorate. More Americans voted in 2020 than in any recent election — because they were eager to get Trump out of the Oval Office. Trump didn’t lose the presidency because of covid-19. Biden had a sizable lead over him well before the pandemic. Biden isn’t clearly ahead in the polls this year, but those surveys might be off and understating his support.

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There is an anti-Trump majority in the country. The problem is, there might also be an anti-Biden majority. Democratic Party leaders seem unwilling to consider one obvious solution to this situation — encouraging Biden to drop out. So right now, there’s a real chance that Trump could be elected president while winning even less than the 46 percent of the national popular vote he earned in 2016.

The good news is that America is not enthralled with Trump. But if the nation stumbles into authoritarianism instead of actively choosing it, that’s still a terrible outcome.

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